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The key issue is whether Warisan can achieve a simple majority to independently establish the next state government.
Political analyst and social activist Dr Kanul Gindol offers his perspective on this topic.
He said if there is a Sabah political party capable of achieving just that – a simple majority – it is Warisan, no other party !
“Unlike other Sabah parties, the support Warisan and its president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal have actually is more multi-racial than many have thought, making it more like Berjaya and PBS in the 1970s and 1980s, respectively,” he said, speaking to Jesselton Times in an exclusive interview recently.
Dr Kanul pointed out that Warisan’s stand to go it alone could well be a political masterstroke, as Sabahans appeared ready to return to the Berjaya or PBS times when a single multi-racial party governed the state.
“In contrast to other parties, Warisan already has a good blend of leaders of different backgrounds. Warisan also seems to be a true-blue Sabah party when it comes to speaking for the state and the people. It is not afraid to stand up to BN or PH.
“Is a single-party government again a better choice? This state election will show if the people want a return to Berjaya and PBS times or stick with the current style of coalition of too many parties,” he said.
At least, he said, another local party, Parti Impian Sabah (PIS), also thinks similarly that a single party is a better choice to guarantee political stability in Sabah. PIS argues the current GRS coalition is unstable because anytime it could collapse if it could not satisfy its component parties.
“And so people believed much time had been wasted on satisfying the whims and fancies of the parties rather than working for the people; thus, we have the roads, electricity and water always in bad shape these four years,” he opined.
Dr Kanul also claimed there had been a resurgence of Chinese support for Warisan. “The Chinese are warming up again to Warisan, and we can already feel it,” he said, pointing out he has personally spoken to many of his Chinese friends.
“I found out Sabahan Chinese are no longer 99% with PH. A substantial number will vote for Warisan. They told me the Chinese would only look at who will be the top man or chief minister, not all the YB Aduns.
“My friends told me that Shafie’s promise to appoint a Chinese person as finance minister if Warisan wins has further aroused the sentiment among the Sabahan Chinese for Warisan,” Dr Kanul said.
Nevertheless, Warisan has not been quite liked in many Kadazan-Dusun-Murut areas. Understandably so because of the continuous work of certain parties to portray Shafie as pro-Filipino immigrants, but this is being addressed by a Warisan task force, and it is already bearing fruit.
“More and more young and middle-aged Kadazandusun-Muruts favour Warisan now, and this we could see at Warisan gatherings, on social media and in surveys.
“Don’t be surprised if there are surprises in the coming state election. Don’t be surprised if long-serving presidents fall. PBS might have its third president to fall; it is possible; it already happened to two PBS presidents,” he added.
But can Warisan win a simple majority of 38 seats out of the 73?
According to Dr Kanul, Warisan looks set to contest in at least 50 seats, including in Chinese and Kadazan-Dusun-Murut seats.
“I’m not privy to Warisan intelligence, but from what we hear, they are confident of the possibility of winning 41 seats. If this happens, then Warisan will form a single-party state government, a return to the Berjaya or PBS times.
“Many people claimed that now no party is strong enough to win on its own right in Sabah, but this is politics; nothing is impossible. Another factor is this : Warisan still has the machinery, or “jentera”; it has the grassroots organisations in all areas it has stood before,” Dr Kanul said.
What if Warisan can’t win 38 seats? Dr Kanul is of the opinion that Warisan can always fall back onto Parti KDM if KDM, which is currently led by Priscella Peter, wins enough seats and is willing to partner Warisan on the night of the election result.
“A two-member coalition is much more solid and better than a 10-party coalition,” he said, adding he expected PBS and Star would be “trapped” in using a common GRS symbol, which will bar them from leaving GRS to work a coalition with Warisan or any other party post-election.
“In my view, on the other hand, if Warisan doesn’t win outright but it holds onto the principle of refusing to enter into a coalition with any Malaya-based party, thus remaining the state opposition, it could still redeem itself when the parliamentary election comes in 2027.
“It is a matter of principle. The new voters will factor this in. If you go against your own words, you lose integrity. Leaders must say what they mean and mean what they say. Gone are the days when you hoodwink Sabahans,” he said, adding that whatever it is – politics is a game of possible – nothing is impossible. ™Borneo Herald/Jesselton Times
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