By Luke Rintod of FMT
KOTA
KINABALU: Despite the political mayhem in Sabah, it is possible that
Barisan Nasional (BN) will again win big in the state in the coming
general election.
In fact, BN could win all 25 parliamentary seats and all the 60 state assembly seats as well as the sole MP seat in Labuan.
Mind you, in the last general election in 2008, Sabah BN lost only
two seats – the Kota Kinabalu parliamentary seat and the state seat in
Sri Tanjung .
Both seats went to DAP. This time though, it is possible that DAP will lose both seats to BN.
But DAP will disagree with me. It will insist that it can retain Kota Kinabalu and Sri Tanjung.
Its leaders will also tell you that they will win the Sandakan
parliamentary seat and in a few other state constituencies where there
are Chinese majorities. This should add up to about eight
constituencies.
And that means state-based opposition Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP),
which is staking claims to these Chinese seats too, will be left
empty-handed.
These are the possibilities in Sabah.
And what about the Sabah chapter of the State Reform Party (STAR) that boasts 160,000 members?
Political pundits here are claiming that STAR has a good chance of
winning a few Kadazandusun seats. They are saying that it could be four
MP seats and eight state seats.
But if you ask the STAR leaders, they’ll tell you that winning a
simple majority of 31 (out of 60) and up to 10 MP seats is possible.
That would mean BN component parties like Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Upko could lose scores of their seats to STAR.
Musa may lose seat
It is possible that the Kadazandusuns are shifting away from PBS and
Upko, not so much because they love less both parties and leaders but
more because they hate Umno hegemony in the state.
Another possibility is that Chief Minister Musa Aman may also lose his Sungai Sibuga state seat.
Not because of the exposure of allegedly illegal international money
transactions but because some folk within Sabah Umno want to see the end
to the Musa’s reign.
They want Shafie Apdal – an Umno vice-president – to assume his position.
Bearing this in mind, it is possible that Shafie may trade his
current Semporna MP seat for a state constituency in the east-coast
belt, thus paving the way for him to rise to the role of Sabah chief
minister.
If you’re thinking that Musa cannot lose in his constituency, think again.
Remember former chief minister Harris Salleh? Well, he was trounced
by a virtually unknown named Kadoh Agundong, who was a member of a
fledgling three-week-old Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) in Tenom in 1985.
Meanwhile, the list of possible “Goliaths” in the coming election
includes PBS president Joseph Pairin Kitingan, Upko president Bernard
Dompok, SAPP president Yong Teck Lee, LDP president VK Liew and even
STAR Sabah chairman, Jeffrey Kitingan.
All these heavyweights could lose to the young “Davids” in the coming national polls.
Jeffrey has chalked up many losses in recent times. He is currently
working to dethrone his elder brother Pairin in Tambunan and Keningau.
Dompok himself has lost before in Penampang and Liew is facing a precarious situation in Sandakan.
Yong recently finished a poor third in the Batu Sapi by-election,
well behind the relatively unknown Linda Tsen from BN-PBS. In fact, Yong
did worse than PKR’s Ansari Abdullah in the Batu Sapi polls.
In 2008, the initial votes tally showed that former magistrate Shanty
Chong (DAP) had won the seat. But following objections, Liew was later
declared the winner under suspicious circumstances.
BN may re-field Bumburing, Lajim
Chong took her case to court but, for some unknown reason, dropped it
and Liew went on to be appointed as Deputy International Trade and
Industry Minister.
And there’s also talk of Upko deputy president Wilfred Bumburing and
Umno westcoast warlord Lajim Ukin threatening to quit their respective
parties.
Talk has been going on for ages that the duo will join PKR but thus far nothing has materialised.
Suffice to note that BN chairman Najib Tun Razak and Musa would do
whatever possible to prevent them from defecting not because these two
are indispensable but more so out of fear that their move would trigger a
mass exodus from Umno, PBS, and Upko.
Having said this, I believe there is a possibility that Bumburing and Lajim would be retained by BN as candidates, after all.
It is quite possible for Lajim to win handsomely at least in his
Klias state seat which he once held before becoming Beaufort MP.
The same possibility applies to Bumburing in Tamparuli or even in Tuaran where Ansari has contested and lost many times.
There is also talk that some in Upko are encouraging potential
leaders to come out and stand as candidates, especially in areas its BN
colleague PBS is currently representing.
That explains the sudden appearances of familiar names like Osu
Sukam, Ghapur Salleh, Maijol Mahap, Tan Yong Gee, Mokhtar Radin, Steven
Kutai and even Dr Ibrahim Menudin of Labuan. All of them could join
Lajim and Bumburing in the opposition.
Backstabbing is very much a part and parcel of Sabah politics and the
13th general election is seeing even the BN grassroots members wanting a
change of their respective “Yang Berhormats”.
‘Comebacks’ likely
This being the case, it is possible that Bumburing may not want to
re-contest the Tuaran MP seat, as some claim he has an understanding
with his immediate predecessor Wilfred Madius Tangau.
The Tamparuli state seat is currently held by PBS’ Jahid Jahim, a Muslim representing a Christian majority area.
Meanwhile Tan, a former Labuk assemblyman, could be aiming to return
to his seat which is now held by PBS vice-president Michael Asang.
Lawyer Maijol could possibly be the best bet to take on PBS deputy president Maximus Ongkili in Kota Marudu.
They have duelled at least twice before for the seat and Maijol, who is now a senator, lost only by a slim margin.
None of the STAR leaders in poverty-stricken Kota Marudu seems able to take the mantle of leadership from Ongkili.
Kutai from Inanam is also its former assemblyman but has been since succeeded by PBS Johny Goh.
In the 2008 general election, Inanam saw a huge combined opposition
votes of around 7,000 while Goh, the eventual winner, only managed to
get over 5,000 votes.
His rival, Daniel John Jambun of PKR, bagged more than 4,000 votes
while a lesser known DAP candidate managed to get over 2,000 votes.
Had the opposition fielded one candidate then, it would have won Inanam.
Opposition is more split
The opposition in Sabah appears even more split now than in the last election.
At least in 2008, there was no STAR as Jeffrey was still in PKR then.
That is why I said BN could win big again in Sabah. Those hoping for change are pragmatic about the possibilities.
There is still time for the opposition parties already in Sabah to
hammer out their differences and consolidate their position against the
entrenched BN.
There is also a possibility that one or two of opposition parties in
Sabah could be working hand-in-hand with the establishment to ensure
that the Umno-led BN rules for another five years.
Kalau BN menang di Sabah, hancurlah Sabah dan rakyat merana mengemis dibumi sendiri dan Sabah kekal negeri ke-13 dan termiskin di Malaysia. Minyak kekal 95% untuk Petronas, tanah anak negeri dan tanah kampung kekal dirampas oleh kompeni-kompeni, PTI bertambah lagi dan berkeliaran menguasai seluruh Sabah.
ReplyDeleteLuke pls cek my article to be forwarded to you. If you think BN will win in a fair fight of corse not. but dont forget that the SPR and the NRD are both political BN Add/hock entities. With ballot box substitution, falsly obtained ID cards and the old faithfull Phantom voters. yes these ingredients will retain BN seats. But in a fair fight where democracy prevails and the peoples vote carried I dont think so. Mike
DeleteAre you cursing us? We are living in Sabah for decades and we never said like we have been this and that. Watch your bitch mouth.
Deleteto 10.47 not cursing. pls read again. stating the hard facts that elections are not won by fair means. a fair fight a fair election is what i was talking about.
DeleteThe people have wisen up. Its up to them to make a wise decision this coming election.
DeleteItu cuma kata-kata orang yang takut sebenarnya dan cuba menakutkan orang lain.
DeleteKita lihat saja nanti..Adakah benar Sabah ini akan musnah atau tidak. Kita tunggu juga bagaimana sokongan daripada penduduk Sabah sendiri juga nanti.
DeleteBN will definitely win big in Sabah. Take it or leave it.
DeleteBN WILL WIN AGAIN BECAUSE OF UNDI HANTU DARI 'PATI' .. THEY HOLD MYKAD WITH EXPIRY DATE WRITTEN ON IT..THINK AGAIN.. THEY RECEIVED MYKAD THROUGH MAIL NOT FROM JPN.. HOW STUPID YOU GUYS DIDNT REALIZE IT.. BN WILL MAKE SABAH WORST. SO SAD THAT THERE STILL HAVE PEOPLE LIKE YOU... YOU'VE BEEN BRAINWASHED!!! JUST RECALL BACK WHAT'VE HISTORY BOOK YOU'VE LEARN BACK FROM SECONDARY SCHOOL... THINK AGAIN.!!
DeleteWe agree fully with observation of the writer. His analysis of the situation is very correct indeed. Hope opposition leaders take note.
ReplyDeleteOnly the opposition leaders can save themselves now.
Deletehttp://sabah-go-green.blogspot.com/
The opposition is getting desperate for attentions.
Delete11.00 hehehe so is the BN Datuk Sri Shafie Afdal pleeds now for votes. but recently erred when pointing out that he gave money for the assistance of school kids in Kg Gana in KM. even money tobuy tooth paste and tooth brushes has been gnapped by his admin failing to deliver his promis, what more when the election comes
Deletedengan kegagalan pembangkang untuk bersatu, peluang BN untuk menang di Sabah memang cerah.
DeleteOpposition parties should realize by now the importance of cooperating with one another in order to win the election.
DeletePembangkang tidak akan dapat bersatu.
DeleteOppositions should be ready to lose their deposit in this GE.
DeleteYOU GUYS ARE TOO STUPID TO BROADEN YOUR MIND.... THE FACT IS TRUE THAT BN WILL LOSE
DeleteWe will see if BN win big in Sabah after the people have cast their votes in the next GE.
ReplyDeletehttp://sabah-go-green.blogspot.com/
The people is the decision makers for sabah's future. Vote wisely!
DeleteWe won't know what will happen in the future, just wait and see.
ReplyDeletehttp://sabah-go-green.blogspot.com/
keadaan pembangkang di Sabah sekarang ini belum cukup kuat malah makin berpecah pula.
DeleteIts not difficult to predict that BN will win this coming election due to the many opposition parties in sabah.
Deletetrue but the price tag to field a candidate splits the boys from the men. we will perhaps see a couple of put up independednts to further split the votes but over-all it will be BN components against DAP-PKR-SAPP. STAR as a loose cannon in my view will only damage the KDM vote not strengthen it
DeleteKemenangan BN terletak kepada kami semua. Apa pun kita berharap agar segalanya akan menjadi baik.
ReplyDeletejika kerajaan sekarang dapat laksanakan tugas dengan baik kepada rakyat, mungkin BN akan terus dapat sokongan.
DeleteEven with this prediction, BN still need to work hard in ensuring that all promises are fulfilled before election comes.
DeleteJangan leka dengan ramalan2 positif kerana ramalan tu bukan suatu kepastian dan masih belum menjadi realiti.
DeleteBN mempuyai rekod yang baik dalam menjalankan tugas sebagai pemimpin.
DeleteYes, I agree with you. BN will win in the next GE due to its popularity among the people.
ReplyDeletepopularity amongst the people or amongst the new "sabahungs" the Phillipinoes and Indonesians
DeleteThe government is trying their best to solve the PTI issue in sabah. Hopefully this issue could be solved before election comes to ensure a clean and fair election.
Delete12.17 doubtfull as the BN needs these votes to definate ensure its win. You know that BN phantoms can vote up to twice or more in a single day dont you. so with this advantage and other fraudulent methods observers have identified BN whether you vote or not will use your vote to win regardless.
DeleteHanya BN yang mampu membantu rakyat mencapai segala sesuatu.
ReplyDelete11.39 apa komen anda pasal akaun Musa Aman di Negara Swis...Tiada bank ka d Malaysia dia boleh pakai mesti paki bank asing ka? banyak juga slas fun dia tu.. maklumlah org yang mau salur wang ke negara Swiss dan ada akaun di sana memang ingin tapuk wang di sana...Betul ka c Najib percaya c Musa dan bagi dia AS 90 juta untk di jaga??? kenapa tidak bagi DPM atau org smnjung dia harap dan percaya...Kawan ingat tak komen c Musa Sabah jadi Fixed Deposit BN...Inilah sebenarnya Fixed Deposit Sabah tau
ReplyDeleteMusa Amann is innocent until proven guilty. Not satisfied? Then go mad at the laws.
DeleteWell i guess they are up to this task.
ReplyDeleteTill then we shall know by all means.
ReplyDeleteThe chance for BN to win is vey much high.
ReplyDeleteindeed the chance for BN to win is very high due to the split votes .
DeleteBase on fact they seem to have higher possibilities to win.
ReplyDeleteWho really knows which party to win in the next GE?
ReplyDeleteIn politics anything can happen. What has been predicted may not even come true.
Deletepersaingan mungkin sengit kerana semua parti mahukan menang. apa pun, rakyat pasti tahu mana yang terbaik untk mereka.
ReplyDeleteI believe the people know what is best for Sabah.
Deletesusah jugalah mau cakap, tapi kalau tengok BN memang kuat di Sabah ni.
ReplyDeleteFor now, BN maintained as the strongest party in Sabah. However, they must not take the people for granted or else people will loss trust in them.
Deletepembangkang di Sabah berbalah semasa mereka, jadi ini memberi kelebihan kepada BN.
ReplyDeleteBukan saja berbalah malah semakin banyak parti baru yang ditubuhkan. Sukar sangat nampaknya untuk bersatu di bawah satu bumbung. Bukan macam BN.
DeleteBN masih ada peluang untuk menang, tapi ia bergantung jg kepada sokongan rakyat.
ReplyDeleteperlu diingat bahawa setiap kawasan tu tidak semuanya memberi sokongan terhadap BN. jadi, kena berhati2. pembangkang pun sedaya upaya mendapatkan sokongan rakyat.
DeletePemimpin di setiap kawasan perlu lebih prihatin terhadap rakyat bagi memastikan rakyat sentiasa akan memilih BN.
ReplyDeleteWhoever may win the seat, may he/she be blessed!
ReplyDeletePeople vote for the best! Vote for the one who can give everything you want!
ReplyDeleteThere is no such thing "one who can give everything you want" as nobody can please everybody.
DeleteCooperation is an important factor to win
ReplyDeleteSure BN will win big again in Sabah
ReplyDeletehttp://bah-sabah-bah.blogspot.com/
A Sabah veteran politician foresees a more secure future for Malaysia under the Barisan Nasional (BN) administration, and paid tribute to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak for initiating transformation to make the country a developed nation by 2020.
ReplyDeleteA Sabah veteran politician foresees a more secure future for Malaysia under the Barisan Nasional (BN) administration, and paid tribute to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak for initiating transformation to make the country a developed nation by 2020.
ReplyDeleteSTUPID MORON!!! ONLY BRAINWASHED, CORRUPTED PEOPLE VOTE BN!!
ReplyDelete